By: Salaudeen A.I
Nigeria economy resting majorly on petroleum resources has put Nigeria in the mercy of "boom and burst" of international oil market. The story started changing in 2015 as a result of dropping in oil price in 2014 which forced government to support ever-chanting economic diversification and was put into present government agenda. Although, the direction and method of government in the diversification drive has been criticized by economists and researchers that the government's idea of economic diversification seems to concentrate around exploration of solid minerals and agricultural products and that, by focusing on natural resources alone, the Nigerian government is missing the track in the drive for economic diversification because solid minerals are in the same category and are amenable to similar market as crude oil. Therefore suggesting other industries like entertainment and film production among others.
Azeez Akinwumi Sesan, in his December, 2020 work also dished Nollywood as a potential route for Nigeria economic diversification saying that "Over-dependence of Nigeria on petroleum products for foreign exchange earnings has limited the country’s economic opportunities of diversification. If properly managed with committed dedication, Nollywood can contribute meaningfully to the achievement of sustainable development in Nigeria."
There are lots of other works proposing Nollywood as a rescue, but none of them has worked on the present situation of the industry. This work did an in-depth descriptive analysis on the present capacity and contribution of the industry into the national GDP using secondary data from reliable online sources. The work aim to explore further with it's already established determinants but did this little due to limited resources.
Findings
Nigeria Nollywood produced 5,365 films from the second quarter of 2017 to second quarter of this year (2021) with 2020 accounting for over 48% of the total while 2021 half-year 19.6% is more than the production in 2019(13%) and also more than 2017 (8.4%) and 2018 (10.5%) put together. This shows a significant yearly increase in production; average of 26 release weekly and approximately 3 daily since 2017 and average of 51 release weekly and more than 7 daily since 2020.
Prob1: Nollywood film production Q2 2017- Q2 2021.
Prob2: Trend of Nollywood film production Q2 2017- Q2 2021.
The trend displayed in the above graph depicts continues increase in yearly production without seasonality or peculiarity for any period of the year. To understand this further, our analyst visualized quarter on quarter production across the years as in Prob3 below and also run a correlation test on the data whose coefficient is close to zero (r=0.073) meaning no linear relationship between quarters of the year and Nollywood production.
Prob3: Quarter on Quarter production since Q2 2017- Q2 2021.
Prob4: Production by location 1st and 2nd quarter of 2021.
Nollywood production location is not spreading across the country it majorly isolated only 8 municipalities out of 37 in the nation. Moreover, volume of production are much more in the southern than in the northern part as shown in Prob4. This could be as a result of insecurity, financial capacity, interest or anything. This can be term as inadequate use of location space by the industry due to yet to established reason. This work opined that effective use of location space across the nation will increase their production and revenue generation as cultural influence and personalization are significant drive of consumer behaviour.
Nollywood Contribution to GDP
Contribution of Nollywood to gross domestic product GDP remain very low thought with seasonal increase but remain almost the same since 2019 till date as depicted in Prob5. Although production is increasing over years but GDP contribution do not, correlation analysis (r=-0.88) shows that production made in the early quarters of any year tend to contribute to GDP than production in the late quarters. (reason not yet prove)
Prob5: Contribution of Nollywood production to Nigeria GDP 2019-2021.
Our analysis discovered that Nollywood is in high competition with foreign film industries, using Hollywood as case study, this study selected 5 top grossing films from the two industries (i.e Nollywood and Hollywood) in Nigeria. It is discovered that "Omo Ghetto" is in the first position with outlying revenue of #442million while second, third, forth and fifth are crowing behind. This study discovered that there is no difference in the consumption of Nollywood and Hollywood products. An independent t-test shows no difference in the two group (i.e Nollywood and Hollywood). Nollywood competing shoulder to shoulder with only one foreign counterpart could be dangerous and could mean that Nollywood will have no place in her land if other foreign competitors are put into the analysis.
Prob6: Top 5 Grossing (#million) Nollywood films in Nigeria 2021.
Prob7: Top 5 Grossing (#million) Hollywood films in Nigeria 2021.
Prob8: Comparison of top 5 Grossing (#million) Nollywood and Hollywood films in Nigeria 2021.
Conclusion
Nigeria is in economic diversification move and Nollywood has been dished to have potential role in the coarse. Nollywood film production has been increasing over the years, it is presently on average of 7 release daily and 51 weekly but still contribute little to the national GDP, it contributed less than 1% in 2020. It is also discovered that the industry is struggling to survive foreign competition in it's country. Citizens are believed to supposedly go for their local content if their demand will be satisfied and thus eradicate competition of local firm with foreign counterparts. The industry is not utilizing the country's location space effectively and this is perceived to be one of the reasons it is not maximizing revenue generation. This study therefore advised the industry to look into distribution of production location across the nation and also it's production quality and story telling to level-up with their competitors if they can't do better.
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